Analysis of the impact of anti-dumping duties on the Indian solar market

The Ministry of Commerce has recommended anti-dumping duties (ADD) for solar cells and modules from the leading supplier countries. The final decision on their imposition is now awaited. Since then, the solar market in India has come to a standstill, with many projects and policies on hold. For more details, please download the latest edition of the India Solar Compass (July 2014) here.

  • The imposition of ADD could lead to a reduction of solar installations by almost 67% in the next year
  • Even if ADD is not enforced, installation capacity in the next year is still expected to fall by almost 40% due to delays caused by uncertainty about ADD
  • Projects under state policies and parity based projects will be affected most severely

As a result of the ADD, the cost of solar power could rise by about 10%, making many solar projects unviable. Also, making solar power more expensive to the taxpayer or power consumer. Indian module manufacturers who do not have their own cell manufacturing, will find it almost impossible to sell in the Indian market. Given the limited capacities of domestic cell manufacturers, the market will face bottlenecks for at least two years.

Had ADD not been tabled, we expect that India would have added over 1.6 GW of solar capacity over the next year. Even if ADD are not enforced, India will likely add almost 40% lesser solar (delays due to uncertainty). If ADD are imposed, the market will fall back to the growth level of pre 2011 and many players and investors might exit.

Figure 1: Projected solar capacity addition in the next year

Blog_Impact of ADD_image

Vinay Rustagi is the Managing Director at BRIDGE TO INDIA.

2 comments

  • Indian Solar manufacturers association in its own claims estimates the cost of imported modules to be about 60 cents/W. According to latest research numbers from Green tech Media mediahttp://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/q2-2014-lowest-module-spot-prices-ever?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+GreentechMedia+%28Greentech+Media%29
    the worldwide average cost of modules is 63 cents/W. How is ADD justified. As far as saving indian jobs is concerned more jobs will be lost because of stalled PV projects than can be saved by imposing ADD.

  • ADD is not required as it will help only to a handful of Indian manufacturers who wish to monopolise the growing sector. This is the only segment of power generation which adds both in off grid and with grid connectivity mode. People in rural areas assemble such generating system wih variety of cheap model ( less than Rs 36/Wp). They make their workable battery with old battery box,cells bought from market and just pour in acid with water. This works for years with led light. They do not need steel support for modules. just brick support in open yard and back to mud house in the evening. We all are aware with the problems of coal, N fuel and even hydro and associated green house gases. We can not solve rural/semi urban power problem with grid supply. Power loss in distribution is mounting up with little money to bye from generating companies. As of now PV particularly roof top appears only viable option. In the larger interest of India let there be open world wide compitition. This will help the technology, cost and vast Indian house hold goining without electricity. As we see in case of automobile, foreign developer will also ultimately set up manufacturing units in India which will help more production at cheaper cost with employment generation.
    SM Sahay

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *