It’s boomtown for Indian solar industry as business volumes grow to 2-4x last year

BRIDGE TO INDIA published the 2016 edition of its India Solar Map last week. The report shows that India’s total installed solar capacity has grown by over 80% in the year ending June 2016 to reach 8.1 GW. Out of the 3.6 GW capacity added in this period, 75% has come from four southern states and Tamil Nadu now ranks number 1 for commissioned capacity. An additional 14,842 MW of projects are under development where auctions have already been completed. The majority (56%) of this pipeline is concentrated in the three southern states of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

  • Total commissioned plus pipeline capacity, split nearly 40:60 between central government and state government policy projects, has grown to 23 GW, +70% over last year
  • Despite growing market, project development space is getting more concentrated wherein top 15 developers have gained nearly 50% market share; most players have 2-4x more capacity under development than their commissioned capacity and their ability to scale up will be critically tested in the coming year
  • Amongst the equipment suppliers, top players include Canadian Solar and Trina Solar for modules and ABB, TMEIC and Hitachi for inverters

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With 460 MW capacity commissioned in the last year, Adani ranks number 1 amongst project developers followed by Acme and Welspun. Going forward, Adani, Acme and ReNew are likely to continue to be dominant players with each of them having a pipeline of over 1 GW. Most large developers have 2-4x more capacity under development than their commissioned capacity. It will be interesting to see how many of them can successfully meet the financial and operational challenges to scale up as required. Interestingly, the list of top 10 developers is dominated by Indian corporates/ IPPs with First Solar and SunEdison the only international players. Strong concentration effect is also evident despite entry of many new players in the sector; more than 50% of total commissioned plus pipeline capacity is accounted for by top 15 developers.

Leading players based on capacity deployed in 12 months up to June 2016

rankingAmongst module suppliers, Canadian Solar, Trina and First Solar take the first three spots. 7 out of top 10 module suppliers in India are now from China as against just 4 out of top 10 in the previous year. Big change is significant pick up in market share by new Chinese suppliers including JA Solar, GCL Poly, BYD, Talesun and Risen. These companies had a very marginal presence in the market previously but now have a combined market share of 22%.

ABB continues to dominate the inverter market with a commanding 35% market share. Japanese players, notably TMEIC and Hitachi, have also gained a significant market share. It is worth noting that all three companies are assembling their products within India. Chinese inverter suppliers such as TBEA, Sungrow and Huawei are also in the top 10 and becoming more aggressive in the market.

The role played by third party EPC players continues to diminish. 48% of the capacity commissioned in the last year (up from 31%) was executed by in-house EPC teams. This business is dominated by a mix of Indian corporates and specialist players with top spots held by Mahindra Susten, Sterling & Wilson and L&T. Gamesa is the only international EPC player in the top 10.

The Indian solar market is expected to continue to grow at a strong pace at least for the next couple of years. Most of the strain caused by aggressive bids has been eased by rapid reduction in module costs. Longer term, sustainable growth will depend on growth in national power demand and robustness of the transmission grid to cope with an increasing share of renewables.

The report contains lots of other vital information on state-wise and policy-wise progress of the Indian solar market along with tariff trends and performance of companies (download it here for free).

 

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