The residential rooftop solar market is still at a nascent stage in India. However, as grid-parity nears and net-metering is offered in more and more states, the segment is poised for fast growth. Residential rooftop installations would be on average small and geographically dispersed. Both are good things. BRIDGE TO INDIA estimates refer that around 325,000 jobs will be created, if India installs 25 GW in ten years. While this target sounds large in today’s context, we believe that it is quite achievable. For details, please refer to our ‘India Solar Decision Brief’ on “India’s Solar Transformation: Beehives vs Elephants” (online downloadable version available here).
- A capacity addition of 25 GW in residential solar would create around 325,000 jobs over ten years
- Parity and net-metering will be the prime drivers for adoption in residential rooftop systems after 2021
- Jobs in manufacturing, business development, supply chain, logistics, installation & commissioning and operation & maintenance are “sticky” whereas jobs in the supply chain, logistics and installation and commissioning are not “sticky”
In our report, we have thought through a scenario, in which India will add 25 GW of residential rooftop capacity (as shown in figure 1). We expect the first set of installations in tier-I cities. The next set of installation will happen in tier-II/III cities in the eight states that already have a net metering policy in place (finalized or draft). Net metering in the remaining states and parity will be the driving force after 2021.
Figure 1: Scenario on capacity addition of residential rooftop systems until 2024 (in GW)
BRIDGE TO INDIA’s analysis suggests that 1 GW of rooftop solar installations in this market segment would create around 40,000 jobs.We assume that the creation of jobs in the supply chain, logistics and installation and commissioning correlate with Y-o-Y growth of installations. Jobs in manufacturing and business development only partially correlate with Y-o-Y growth of installations, i.e. they are more “sticky”. In case of negative growth in new installations, only half of the people will be affected. Jobs related to operations and maintenance are directly proportional to the cumulative solar capacity, as plants will need these services throughout their lifetime. They are the most “sticky”. A capacity addition of 25 GW would result in a cumulative creation of around 325,000 jobs over a priod of ten years.
Figure 2: Expected job creation in installation of residential rooftop systems
States with draft or finalized net-metering policy are Andhra Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Kerala, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Gujarat.
Refer to our blog, “Small rooftop solar systems can generate 4 times the employment than utility scale projects”, http://bit.ly/1uBfyHS
Mudit Jain is a Consultant at BRIDGE TO INDIA